Meralco Slashes Growth Forecast Amid Economic Headwinds
Manila Electric Co. revises its 2025 energy sales growth forecast down to 1-2% from 4-4.5% amid economic challenges and changing consumption patterns in the Philippines.
Meralco headquarters in Manila as company announces revised growth projections for 2025
Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the Philippines' largest power distributor, has significantly reduced its full-year energy sales growth forecast to 1-2% from the previous 4-4.5%, reflecting broader economic challenges and changing consumption patterns.
Revised Outlook Reflects Market Uncertainties
The downward revision comes as regional economic uncertainties continue to affect market performance, with Meralco's senior vice president and chief revenue officer Ferdinand O. Geluz citing cooler weather conditions and reduced power consumption as key factors.
Key Factors Influencing the Forecast
- Cooler and wetter weather conditions offsetting Q1 gains
- Reduced GDP growth outlook from 6% to 5.5%
- Declining per capita consumption averaging 220 kilowatt-hours monthly
- Impact of office vacancies due to POGO restrictions affecting commercial demand
First Half Performance Analysis
The consolidated distribution utility energy sales showed minimal growth in H1 2025, with a less than 1% increase to 27,091 gigawatt-hour from 26,954 GWh year-on-year. This modest performance aligns with broader economic indicators affecting various sectors of the Philippine economy.
Segment Performance Breakdown
- Commercial segment: 37% share (10,102 GWh)
- Residential sales: 36% share (9,779 GWh)
- New connections driving growth despite flat organic demand
"Typically, the growth in the distribution utility is close to the real growth of GDP, but these are challenging times. These are tough times," stated Meralco Chairman and CEO Manuel V. Pangilinan.