Trump's Geneva Gambit: Can Dual Diplomacy Deliver Peace?

President Donald Trump's ambitious diplomatic strategy faces scrutiny as his envoys tackle two of the world's most pressing crises simultaneously. The decision to have special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner juggle negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and Russia's war in Ukraine in a single day in Geneva has raised eyebrows among foreign policy experts.

A Day of High-Stakes Diplomacy

On Tuesday, February 17, the US delegation engaged in a carefully orchestrated diplomatic marathon in the Swiss city. The Iran talks, mediated by Oman, lasted three and a half hours with indirect discussions between the American team and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. While both sides indicated some progress, no breakthrough appeared imminent in the longstanding nuclear dispute.

Without pause, the same delegation transitioned to negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine conflict at Geneva's five-star Intercontinental hotel, marking the first of two planned days of talks aimed at ending Europe's largest war since 1945.

Questions Over Strategy

The unconventional approach has drawn criticism from seasoned diplomats. "Trump seems more focused on quantity over quality instead of the difficult detailed work of diplomacy," observed Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration foreign policy adviser who now heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy.

A regional official close to Iran's leadership, speaking anonymously, compared the situation to "an emergency room with two critically ill patients and a single doctor unable to give either case sustained attention, increasing the likelihood of failure."

The Envoys Under Scrutiny

Both Witkoff and Kushner come from Trump's New York real estate world rather than traditional diplomatic backgrounds. Critics question whether they possess the depth of knowledge needed to negotiate with veteran diplomats like Araqchi and their Russian counterparts.

Notably absent from the Geneva meetings was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump's top diplomat known for his foreign policy expertise. This absence has fueled concerns about the administration's diplomatic capacity, particularly given Trump's reduction of staff at both the State Department and National Security Council.

Track Record and Expectations

Witkoff, often called the "envoy for everything" due to his broad mandate, previously helped secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, though progress toward a permanent resolution has stalled. His diplomatic efforts with Iran and Russia have shown limited success thus far.

Kushner's diplomatic credentials include spearheading the Abraham Accords during Trump's first term, which established diplomatic relations between several Arab states and Israel. However, the pact has seen little advancement since Trump's return to office 13 months ago.

Administration's Defense

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended the approach, stating that Trump and his team "have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal" in Ukraine. Administration officials have consistently highlighted the envoys' dealmaking skills and Trump's trust in them, while pointing to the limitations of traditional diplomatic approaches.

High Stakes, Uncertain Outcomes

As Trump continues his quest for international deals and a potential Nobel Peace Prize, the Geneva negotiations represent a critical test of his unconventional diplomatic strategy. With military buildup near Iran continuing and the Ukraine conflict showing no signs of resolution, the success or failure of this dual-track diplomacy could significantly impact global stability.

The international community watches closely as these parallel negotiations unfold, with many questioning whether tackling two of the world's most complex crises simultaneously will yield the breakthrough results Trump seeks or spread diplomatic resources too thin to achieve meaningful progress on either front.