ASEAN energy security takes center stage as Middle East war drags on
MANILA, Philippines — Southeast Asian energy ministers gathering in Manila this week are confronting a harsh reality: the prolonged Middle East war has laid bare the region's dependence on imported fuel, and the time to act is now.
As the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, ASEAN is feeling the pinch. The region imports more than half of its refinery crude from the Middle East, with global benchmark prices hovering around $100 a barrel. Chinese refiners have also suspended oil product exports for October, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, the ministers are expected to review regional fuel-security measures, including coordinated emergency responses under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA). Long-term initiatives like the ASEAN Power Grid and renewable-energy deployment are also on the table.
Why energy security is now a top priority
“What the crisis brought was a sharper focus on resiliency,” Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella told Reuters on October 1. He noted that energy security has moved from a technical issue to a priority for ASEAN ministers and leaders.
The urgency is felt far beyond government halls. Higher prices are squeezing households and eating into the earnings of transport workers across the region.
Filipino workers feel the pain at the pump
“We hardly take anything home anymore,” said Antonio Bandin, a Manila jeepney driver who joined a protest last week over rising fuel costs. His daily fuel bill has more than doubled to about P2,400.
The ASEAN Centre for Energy warned in a policy paper that a severe disruption to Middle East supplies could put oil volumes equivalent to nearly 28% of ASEAN's final oil consumption at risk. That stark figure underscores the need for stronger regional petroleum-security arrangements.
Storage gaps and the road ahead
But the region's insufficient storage capacity and inventories remain major obstacles to implementing APSA, according to Alloysius Joko Purwanto, senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. He spoke during a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has said the Philippines, which remains under a national energy emergency, is exploring regional fuel-stockpiling arrangements and could host future storage projects.
Analysts, however, caution that such measures won't solve the present crisis. “This is more about preparing for the next crisis. A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy,” said Christopher Len, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Long-term solutions: renewables, EVs, and the power grid
Ministers are also expected to discuss reducing long-term dependence on imported fuels. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency are set to feature prominently in the talks.
The International Energy Agency estimates Southeast Asia's energy import bill could rise from more than $80 billion in 2024 to about $245 billion by 2035 without structural change. The IEA says wider electrification, including EVs and biofuels, would help curb oil demand, while cross-border links under the ASEAN Power Grid would require about $27 billion in investment by 2040.
“We should actually use this shock as a lesson to reduce exposure, not only to cushion it,” Len said.
FAQ: ASEAN energy security in the time of war
What is the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA)?
APSA is a regional pact designed to coordinate emergency responses and ensure fuel supply stability among ASEAN member states during crises. It aims to strengthen collective energy security through shared reserves and coordinated action.
How much oil does ASEAN import from the Middle East?
ASEAN imports more than half of the crude oil used by its refineries from the Middle East. This heavy reliance makes the region vulnerable to price shocks and supply disruptions from conflicts like the current Middle East war.
What are the main obstacles to implementing APSA?
The biggest hurdles are insufficient storage capacity and low inventory levels across the region. Without adequate reserves, coordinated emergency responses are difficult to execute effectively.
This article was adapted from a Rappler report for Archipelago Times.