Trump's Iran Campaign Echoes the Post-9/11 'Forever Wars'

Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks launched America into a global war on terror, President Donald Trump finds himself entangled in an unpopular conflict that analysts warn could become his own version of a 'forever war.' Despite campaigning on a promise to be a 'president of peace,' Trump's six-month military campaign against Iran is drawing troubling comparisons to the long, divisive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

As the 9/11 anniversary passes, foreign policy experts are asking whether Washington has again failed to learn the lessons of past conflicts, and whether there is any clear exit strategy. 'Trump has broken an important post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington against launching another major, open-ended war in the Middle East,' said Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy. 'That could leave his successor inheriting an entrenched US-Iran confrontation.'

What makes this war different from Iraq and Afghanistan?

Administration officials insist the Iran conflict is nothing like the protracted post-9/11 engagements. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the US removed hostile governments, deployed thousands of ground troops, and struggled to instill Western-style governance. This time, Washington relies mainly on air and naval power, operations that have damaged Iran militarily and economically but have not defeated it or spurred Iranians to overthrow their rulers.

However, after six months, the US is mired in a battle of attrition punctuated by bursts of hostilities, exemplified by this week's exchange of attacks on oil tankers. Analysts warn the war is likely to drag on well past the November midterm elections, where voter opposition could threaten Republican control of Congress.

Have the lessons of the post-9/11 era been ignored?

Analysts say Trump has failed to heed the central lessons of the post-9/11 era, which began when al Qaeda militants crashed planes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, killing nearly 3,000 people. Those lessons include the steep political downsides of long wars and the dangers posed by an entrenched foe fighting for its survival.

The twin wars under President George W. Bush overstretched the US military and destabilized the Middle East. The public backlash helped fuel Trump's rise a decade ago, and he won a second term in 2024 vowing to avoid military adventurism. But similar to how the Bush administration underestimated insurgencies, Trump and his aides have miscalculated Iran's resiliency and its ability to throttle a fifth of the world's energy shipments.

Notably, Trump's 'Operation Epic Fury,' launched alongside Israel on February 28, was not precipitated by a 9/11-type national trauma but was deemed by critics to be a war of choice. Experts have disputed Trump's claims that Tehran's nuclear program posed an imminent threat to the US.

What is the cost for allies and the region?

The conflict has mirrored the Iraq invasion in terms of regional spillover, in this case Tehran's retaliation against US Gulf allies. With Iran's neighbors quietly seeking to de-escalate a conflict they never wanted, a Gulf official lamented that the administration might be making some of the same errors of the post-9/11 wars. 'What was the (US) strategy here?' asked the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian described 'a sense of limitation and helplessness in the Gulf about the wars that are taking place due to the whims of the United States.' The war's shockwaves expanded on September 10, with Yemeni government sources saying Iran-aligned Houthis had seized control of the port city of Mocha, gaining further leverage over a key Red Sea oil-shipping route.

While the Iraq and Afghan wars started with solid support at home, Trump's war enjoyed no such honeymoon. Most Americans were against it from the outset, and he has even drawn criticism from prominent figures in his own 'America First' movement. The campaign has hardened into an uneasy stalemate that has not achieved most of Trump's shifting objectives, including shutting down Iran's nuclear program, and has depleted the Pentagon's missile stockpiles.

Still, Trump has defenders. Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies denied Trump had plunged the US into an endless war. 'It's been a 47-year war waged by the Islamic Republic against America,' Dubowitz said. 'And now we've struck back.'

Why should Filipinos care about the Iran conflict?

For the Philippines, the conflict carries direct consequences. Tehran's disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global gasoline prices higher, affecting Filipino consumers already grappling with inflation. The war also underscores the importance of regional stability for overseas Filipino workers in the Middle East, many of whom are employed in Gulf states that could be drawn into the crossfire. As the US election approaches, the outcome of this conflict will shape not only American foreign policy but also the security and economic environment across Asia and the Pacific.